What use are biomarkers anyway?

brain puzzleWhat is all the hype around biomarkers? Well, maybe they refine our estimate of risk. Join the #GeriMedJC discussion on September 28, 2018  at 08:00 ET as we discuss this Markov model. View the presentation live during the hour on Zoom.

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer’s disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease. Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Aug;14(8):981-988. PMID: 29802030

INTRODUCTION:
Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia during one’s lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease.

METHODS:
We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates.

RESULTS:
Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90-year old and 29.3% for a 65-year old. Persons younger than 85 years with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis, and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%.

DISCUSSION:
Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.

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